Sunday 3/23 weather

 On Sunday impactful weather will happen on two fronts. To the north a snowstorm will impact upper Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The GFS models shows what areas could see in terms of snowfall. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the south severe weather is expected. Scattered damaging winds and hail are the main threat, although a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.  (image from the National Weather Service)

Weather for Sunday 3/23

Sunday the 23rd looks to be a active day on two fronts. To the south severe weather is expected. Hail, and damaging winds are the main threat though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. (image from the National Weather Service)

To the north a another snowstorm is expected. A broad area of 4 inches expected  in Upper Minnesota and upper Wisconsin. This area will likely be refined as we get closer to the actual event. (image from Icon model from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) 

Severe Weather Update 3/19

 Quick update about the severe weather.  The chances for Tornadoes have increased in Illinois and Indiana. A couple of tornadoes are expected in the slight and enhanced area. The enhanced risk also has a threat of seeing 1 or 2 strong tornadoes. A tornado watch has been issued for the whole enhanced risk and nearby counties. The rest of the severe weather forecast (hail and damaging wind) is the same as yesterday.(images from the National Weather Service)

 

Blizzard for tomorrow in the Upper midwest.

 Nothing much has changed in terms of thinking. This is what the HRRR thinks in terms of snowfall amounts for the area. Purple and pink areas could see amounts of 6-12 inches. With the just pink seeing 8-14 inches. From Kansas to Minnesota, blizzard conditions are expected. While in Wisconsin it looks to be under the criteria, but windy conditions are expected. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the southeast of the snow tomorrow. Severe weather is possible, with scattered hail or wind threat or isolated tornado or two possible in the slight risk area. With a isolated wind or hail possible in the marginal area. (image from the National Weather Service)

Honorable Mention

There is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic that has 10% chance to become a tropical depression/storm. It poses no threat to land. While I don't see it forming, it is a good reminder that the hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1. 

Snowstorm for Wednesday

 For Wednesday a low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions to Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. The path of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions has moved slightly north as compared to yesterday. The Icon model looks like it has a decent idea of what could happen on Wednesday (image below, from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ). The purple and pink swath could see 5-8 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions likely. A maximum of snowfall looks be in the pink area in Iowa and lower Minnesota with 6-10 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions (locally higher amounts possible). It should be noted the path of the heaviest snowfall could still adjust north or south. If you live in the pink or purple swath or nearby it, please have a way to get updates on when or what you are expecting, as you won't want to be on the road during the worse conditions.

Snowstorm for the 19th

 For Wednesday the 19th there will likely be a snowstorm over the Upper Midwest. Confidence is increasing that a swath of 6+ inches of snow will be possible over Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. It is still uncertain where this swath exactly will set up because of the exact path of the system. Within the swath, blizzard conditions or close to that, will be possible on Wednesday. The two models below show the uncertainty of the path and width of the heavy snow. The GFS model showing the system having more moisture and going slightly more north than the Icon model. To further complicate this system, it will likely start as rain at the onset of the precipitation, changing to snow west to east as the system moves more east and the cold air wraps around it. It should be noted that the cold air will only be around 30-34 degrees so a bump up or down would wildly change amounts or who gets snowfall. (images from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)