Sunday 3/23 weather

 On Sunday impactful weather will happen on two fronts. To the north a snowstorm will impact upper Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The GFS models shows what areas could see in terms of snowfall. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the south severe weather is expected. Scattered damaging winds and hail are the main threat, although a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.  (image from the National Weather Service)

Weather for Sunday 3/23

Sunday the 23rd looks to be a active day on two fronts. To the south severe weather is expected. Hail, and damaging winds are the main threat though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. (image from the National Weather Service)

To the north a another snowstorm is expected. A broad area of 4 inches expected  in Upper Minnesota and upper Wisconsin. This area will likely be refined as we get closer to the actual event. (image from Icon model from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) 

Severe Weather Update 3/19

 Quick update about the severe weather.  The chances for Tornadoes have increased in Illinois and Indiana. A couple of tornadoes are expected in the slight and enhanced area. The enhanced risk also has a threat of seeing 1 or 2 strong tornadoes. A tornado watch has been issued for the whole enhanced risk and nearby counties. The rest of the severe weather forecast (hail and damaging wind) is the same as yesterday.(images from the National Weather Service)

 

Blizzard for tomorrow in the Upper midwest.

 Nothing much has changed in terms of thinking. This is what the HRRR thinks in terms of snowfall amounts for the area. Purple and pink areas could see amounts of 6-12 inches. With the just pink seeing 8-14 inches. From Kansas to Minnesota, blizzard conditions are expected. While in Wisconsin it looks to be under the criteria, but windy conditions are expected. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the southeast of the snow tomorrow. Severe weather is possible, with scattered hail or wind threat or isolated tornado or two possible in the slight risk area. With a isolated wind or hail possible in the marginal area. (image from the National Weather Service)

Honorable Mention

There is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic that has 10% chance to become a tropical depression/storm. It poses no threat to land. While I don't see it forming, it is a good reminder that the hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1. 

Snowstorm for Wednesday

 For Wednesday a low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions to Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. The path of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions has moved slightly north as compared to yesterday. The Icon model looks like it has a decent idea of what could happen on Wednesday (image below, from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ). The purple and pink swath could see 5-8 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions likely. A maximum of snowfall looks be in the pink area in Iowa and lower Minnesota with 6-10 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions (locally higher amounts possible). It should be noted the path of the heaviest snowfall could still adjust north or south. If you live in the pink or purple swath or nearby it, please have a way to get updates on when or what you are expecting, as you won't want to be on the road during the worse conditions.

Snowstorm for the 19th

 For Wednesday the 19th there will likely be a snowstorm over the Upper Midwest. Confidence is increasing that a swath of 6+ inches of snow will be possible over Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. It is still uncertain where this swath exactly will set up because of the exact path of the system. Within the swath, blizzard conditions or close to that, will be possible on Wednesday. The two models below show the uncertainty of the path and width of the heavy snow. The GFS model showing the system having more moisture and going slightly more north than the Icon model. To further complicate this system, it will likely start as rain at the onset of the precipitation, changing to snow west to east as the system moves more east and the cold air wraps around it. It should be noted that the cold air will only be around 30-34 degrees so a bump up or down would wildly change amounts or who gets snowfall. (images from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) 

Heavy Snow for Wednesday the 19th

For Wednesday the 19th a heavy snowstorm looks to impact the Upper Midwest. The CMC model shows a swath of very heavy snowfall, although the totals it shows here might be inflated. There will likely be a path of 6-12 inches of snowfall, with the potential for blizzard conditions. The path of heavy snowfall will probably be adjusted north or south depending on the exact track. If you live in Iowa, Wisconsin, or lower Minnesota please keep a eye on this system for Wednesday as this could significantly impact your travels. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

Severe Weather Outbreak Today

A tornado outbreak is very likely to happen today in Alabama, Mississippi, and the nearby areas. Please have a way to get alerts. Multiple long track, strong tornadoes are likely to happen. Please take any warnings seriously, and take cover for your safety. (Images from the National Weather Service)

Severe Weather threat today and tommorrow

 It is going to be a very impactful day for a lot of states today. All types of severe weather will be possible. In Iowa the main risk will be winds, with hail and tornadoes although the higher tornado risk is staying to the south, but a couple tornadoes can't be ruled out in Iowa.  For the rest of the states, all severe types will be possible with strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and severe hail being possible. If you are in the enhanced or moderate risk, or know someone who is please make sure they have a way to get alerts as this isn't a normal threat. There will likely be multiple tornadoes tonight with a  couple being strong; unfortunately this will mostly be happening during the night, and if you get a alert please take cover for your own safety. (Images from the National Weather service showing the categorical outlook, damaging wind threat, and tornado threat. ) 

For tomorrow a rare high risk has been issued and a Tornado outbreak is likely to happen over the south. If you are in the enhanced risk -especially the moderate or high risk- please have a way to get alerts and please take any warnings seriously. Take cover immediately as this isn't your normal threat, please have a plan in place in case you are caught in warning area tomorrow. (images from the National Weather Service)

Severe Weather Threat 3/4 and 3/5

 Tuesday will be impactful for the southern states with a severe weather threat. Main threat is damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes. The area in the 30% (images from the National Weather Service) has the best chance to see this type of weather. Overnight Tuesday the line is expected to weaken, bringing a much lower threat as it moves through Georgia. On Wednesday it is expected to re-strengthen in the morning, putting the East Coast back into a  15% chance for severe weather, but it won't likely get to the same strength as Tuesday. The main threat will be damaging winds, however a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. The line on Wednesday should hit the coastal areas in the afternoon, exact timing will have to wait a couple of days to see the speed of the system.

The north side of this system will bring snow for the northern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern half of Iowa, will likely see 1-4 inches over most of the area. A curved band of 6+ inches  may form but that area depends on how the system sets up. Over the whole area, it will start as rain, changing to snow as the low pressure moves to the east. 

Weather for Monday 2/24

 The weather for coastal South Carolina will have high's in the mid to upper 60s, a light isolated shower or two can't be ruled out before noon southwest of Charleston. The midlands will have a high in the lower to mid 60s, with the upstate area being around 60 degrees. 

To our southeast, Florida will see a rainy day on Monday with the rain ending by early Tuesday morning for most of the state, the eastern coast and to the south will still likely see showers through Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations show most of the state seeing 0.5-1 inches of rain, with southern Florida seeing around 1-2 inches of rain. (Image from the National Weather Service) 

Weather for Wednesday 2/19

For snowfall today the likely area that sees 8-12 inches of snowfall in North Carolina and Virginia is that small area in pink (model from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/). Southeast North Carolina has the highest risk of seeing 0.1-0.25 of ice accumulation (ice images
from the National Weather Service) with northeast South Carolina seeing a chance for light ice  accumulations. There is still a chance to see a trace of snow as far south as Columbia. Coastal South Carolina will see rain accumulations of around 0.5 inches with our highs being around the lower 50s at noon and dropping into the upper 30s by 7pm.

Forecast for early week

Locally for South Carolina for Monday it will be sunny with high's ranging from the lower 50s closer to the coast to the mid to upper 40s in the upstate. Overnight it will be upper 30s near the coast and low 30s in the upstate. For the high on Tuesday the area near the coast will be highs of the upper 50s while the upstate will be around 50 degrees. Tuesday night is tricky as a cold wedge will begin to form. Depending how it sets up will really depend how cold it will get in places.

About the low pressure forecast to move across the United States. I have included a model run from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ which gives a ball park of what the snowfall could look like with the chances of some light accumulation of sleet/ice being just south of the snowfall. On Tuesday to Tuesday night it will likely drop 8-12 inches (with locally higher amounts) of snowfall in that pink area by mid to lower Missouri. Another pocket of heavy accumulation of 8-12 inches could develop near the Virginia coast; this snowfall would start Wednesday afternoon till the late morning of Thursday but  this is of less confidence depending on how fast it starts to strengthen and the path it takes. Do note this isn't exactly what will happen because the low could still track higher or lower and other models show slightly different areas for heavier accumulations.

For us in South Carolina on Wednesday closer to the coast could see 0.5-1 inch of rain while the rest of the state is more uncertain in terms of rainfall depending on the track of the system. The winter weather will likely stay near the South Carolina/North Carolina border by Greenville and Charlotte on Wednesday. Wednesday night if the moisture can wrap around the back side of the low pressure, traces of wintery precip can't be ruled out as far south as Columbia. 

Quick update for today

 
The severe line is moving a bit faster and is stronger then originally anticipated. The line will be through the coast by 11-12pm, and has a threat for scattered severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The National Weather Service has some of the area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (area in blue), please have a way to get alerts as this front passes you. 

 

Weather for 2/16

The weather for Sunday in Coastal South Carolina will start off rainy with clearing in the afternoon. A cold front will pass through causing gusty winds and rain. It will be windy most of the day tomorrow, when the front arrives between 11-1pm it will initially bring moderate to heavy rain. Within that heavy rain, there will be a chance for isolated severe wind gusts (60 mph or greater). The heavy rain will be short lived and should clear out for a breezy but nice afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. 

On Wednesday there will be another low pressure system that passes through. It will be all rain down by the Coastal Carolinas. But in the upstate area especially near the South Carolina and North Carolina border, there will be a chance for wintry precip. As of now it looks to be just a freezing rain/sleet event as the mid levels are too warm for snow. There is still an outside shot that as far south as Columbia could see a trace of freezing rain but it really depends on how cold it gets.