Severe Weather Threat 3/4 and 3/5

 Tuesday will be impactful for the southern states with a severe weather threat. Main threat is damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes. The area in the 30% (images from the National Weather Service) has the best chance to see this type of weather. Overnight Tuesday the line is expected to weaken, bringing a much lower threat as it moves through Georgia. On Wednesday it is expected to re-strengthen in the morning, putting the East Coast back into a  15% chance for severe weather, but it won't likely get to the same strength as Tuesday. The main threat will be damaging winds, however a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. The line on Wednesday should hit the coastal areas in the afternoon, exact timing will have to wait a couple of days to see the speed of the system.

The north side of this system will bring snow for the northern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern half of Iowa, will likely see 1-4 inches over most of the area. A curved band of 6+ inches  may form but that area depends on how the system sets up. Over the whole area, it will start as rain, changing to snow as the low pressure moves to the east. 

Weather for Monday 2/24

 The weather for coastal South Carolina will have high's in the mid to upper 60s, a light isolated shower or two can't be ruled out before noon southwest of Charleston. The midlands will have a high in the lower to mid 60s, with the upstate area being around 60 degrees. 

To our southeast, Florida will see a rainy day on Monday with the rain ending by early Tuesday morning for most of the state, the eastern coast and to the south will still likely see showers through Tuesday afternoon. Accumulations show most of the state seeing 0.5-1 inches of rain, with southern Florida seeing around 1-2 inches of rain. (Image from the National Weather Service) 

Weather for Wednesday 2/19

For snowfall today the likely area that sees 8-12 inches of snowfall in North Carolina and Virginia is that small area in pink (model from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/). Southeast North Carolina has the highest risk of seeing 0.1-0.25 of ice accumulation (ice images
from the National Weather Service) with northeast South Carolina seeing a chance for light ice  accumulations. There is still a chance to see a trace of snow as far south as Columbia. Coastal South Carolina will see rain accumulations of around 0.5 inches with our highs being around the lower 50s at noon and dropping into the upper 30s by 7pm.

Forecast for early week

Locally for South Carolina for Monday it will be sunny with high's ranging from the lower 50s closer to the coast to the mid to upper 40s in the upstate. Overnight it will be upper 30s near the coast and low 30s in the upstate. For the high on Tuesday the area near the coast will be highs of the upper 50s while the upstate will be around 50 degrees. Tuesday night is tricky as a cold wedge will begin to form. Depending how it sets up will really depend how cold it will get in places.

About the low pressure forecast to move across the United States. I have included a model run from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ which gives a ball park of what the snowfall could look like with the chances of some light accumulation of sleet/ice being just south of the snowfall. On Tuesday to Tuesday night it will likely drop 8-12 inches (with locally higher amounts) of snowfall in that pink area by mid to lower Missouri. Another pocket of heavy accumulation of 8-12 inches could develop near the Virginia coast; this snowfall would start Wednesday afternoon till the late morning of Thursday but  this is of less confidence depending on how fast it starts to strengthen and the path it takes. Do note this isn't exactly what will happen because the low could still track higher or lower and other models show slightly different areas for heavier accumulations.

For us in South Carolina on Wednesday closer to the coast could see 0.5-1 inch of rain while the rest of the state is more uncertain in terms of rainfall depending on the track of the system. The winter weather will likely stay near the South Carolina/North Carolina border by Greenville and Charlotte on Wednesday. Wednesday night if the moisture can wrap around the back side of the low pressure, traces of wintery precip can't be ruled out as far south as Columbia. 

Quick update for today

 
The severe line is moving a bit faster and is stronger then originally anticipated. The line will be through the coast by 11-12pm, and has a threat for scattered severe wind gusts, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The National Weather Service has some of the area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch (area in blue), please have a way to get alerts as this front passes you. 

 

Weather for 2/16

The weather for Sunday in Coastal South Carolina will start off rainy with clearing in the afternoon. A cold front will pass through causing gusty winds and rain. It will be windy most of the day tomorrow, when the front arrives between 11-1pm it will initially bring moderate to heavy rain. Within that heavy rain, there will be a chance for isolated severe wind gusts (60 mph or greater). The heavy rain will be short lived and should clear out for a breezy but nice afternoon with highs in the upper 60s. 

On Wednesday there will be another low pressure system that passes through. It will be all rain down by the Coastal Carolinas. But in the upstate area especially near the South Carolina and North Carolina border, there will be a chance for wintry precip. As of now it looks to be just a freezing rain/sleet event as the mid levels are too warm for snow. There is still an outside shot that as far south as Columbia could see a trace of freezing rain but it really depends on how cold it gets.