Honorable Mention

There is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic that has 10% chance to become a tropical depression/storm. It poses no threat to land. While I don't see it forming, it is a good reminder that the hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1. 

Snowstorm for Wednesday

 For Wednesday a low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions to Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. The path of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions has moved slightly north as compared to yesterday. The Icon model looks like it has a decent idea of what could happen on Wednesday (image below, from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ). The purple and pink swath could see 5-8 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions likely. A maximum of snowfall looks be in the pink area in Iowa and lower Minnesota with 6-10 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions (locally higher amounts possible). It should be noted the path of the heaviest snowfall could still adjust north or south. If you live in the pink or purple swath or nearby it, please have a way to get updates on when or what you are expecting, as you won't want to be on the road during the worse conditions.

Snowstorm for the 19th

 For Wednesday the 19th there will likely be a snowstorm over the Upper Midwest. Confidence is increasing that a swath of 6+ inches of snow will be possible over Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. It is still uncertain where this swath exactly will set up because of the exact path of the system. Within the swath, blizzard conditions or close to that, will be possible on Wednesday. The two models below show the uncertainty of the path and width of the heavy snow. The GFS model showing the system having more moisture and going slightly more north than the Icon model. To further complicate this system, it will likely start as rain at the onset of the precipitation, changing to snow west to east as the system moves more east and the cold air wraps around it. It should be noted that the cold air will only be around 30-34 degrees so a bump up or down would wildly change amounts or who gets snowfall. (images from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) 

Heavy Snow for Wednesday the 19th

For Wednesday the 19th a heavy snowstorm looks to impact the Upper Midwest. The CMC model shows a swath of very heavy snowfall, although the totals it shows here might be inflated. There will likely be a path of 6-12 inches of snowfall, with the potential for blizzard conditions. The path of heavy snowfall will probably be adjusted north or south depending on the exact track. If you live in Iowa, Wisconsin, or lower Minnesota please keep a eye on this system for Wednesday as this could significantly impact your travels. (image from tropicaltidbits.com)

Severe Weather Outbreak Today

A tornado outbreak is very likely to happen today in Alabama, Mississippi, and the nearby areas. Please have a way to get alerts. Multiple long track, strong tornadoes are likely to happen. Please take any warnings seriously, and take cover for your safety. (Images from the National Weather Service)

Severe Weather threat today and tommorrow

 It is going to be a very impactful day for a lot of states today. All types of severe weather will be possible. In Iowa the main risk will be winds, with hail and tornadoes although the higher tornado risk is staying to the south, but a couple tornadoes can't be ruled out in Iowa.  For the rest of the states, all severe types will be possible with strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and severe hail being possible. If you are in the enhanced or moderate risk, or know someone who is please make sure they have a way to get alerts as this isn't a normal threat. There will likely be multiple tornadoes tonight with a  couple being strong; unfortunately this will mostly be happening during the night, and if you get a alert please take cover for your own safety. (Images from the National Weather service showing the categorical outlook, damaging wind threat, and tornado threat. ) 

For tomorrow a rare high risk has been issued and a Tornado outbreak is likely to happen over the south. If you are in the enhanced risk -especially the moderate or high risk- please have a way to get alerts and please take any warnings seriously. Take cover immediately as this isn't your normal threat, please have a plan in place in case you are caught in warning area tomorrow. (images from the National Weather Service)

Severe Weather Threat 3/4 and 3/5

 Tuesday will be impactful for the southern states with a severe weather threat. Main threat is damaging wind gusts and strong tornadoes. The area in the 30% (images from the National Weather Service) has the best chance to see this type of weather. Overnight Tuesday the line is expected to weaken, bringing a much lower threat as it moves through Georgia. On Wednesday it is expected to re-strengthen in the morning, putting the East Coast back into a  15% chance for severe weather, but it won't likely get to the same strength as Tuesday. The main threat will be damaging winds, however a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. The line on Wednesday should hit the coastal areas in the afternoon, exact timing will have to wait a couple of days to see the speed of the system.

The north side of this system will bring snow for the northern United States on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern half of Iowa, will likely see 1-4 inches over most of the area. A curved band of 6+ inches  may form but that area depends on how the system sets up. Over the whole area, it will start as rain, changing to snow as the low pressure moves to the east.