Social media Tracking Hurricanes

 This might frustrate some people when I say this but this needs to be said. I've tracked hurricanes for 10+ years and without a doubt the state of hurricane tracking has gotten out of hand with Erin. To keep people from being scared from misinformation/wishcasting we create a state of posting about a potential storm 5+ days before it comes off the coast of Africa all because a couple models showed landfall on the US 300+ hours out. Not only does this just wear people out, it causes a state of anxiety. They hide behind the statements of "informing" and "don't stress out", while also drawing arrows or boxes that have landfalls in the US while cherry-picking a past hurricane that was "supposed to go out to sea" but made a major landfall in the US. 

    I remember when the Euro only went to 240 hours. Days were better then because we didn't have as long range of model to worry about hypecasting when they went haywire. People followed better rules back then like not worrying about a Hurricane that was 15+ days away. Or tracking spaghetti models on a invest that didn't have a closed low, or ensemble members being misused.  

    Now anyone can have access to a weather model, which is a double-edged sword. On one hand you don't have to wait for your favorite meteorologist to post about a system and you could just pull it up yourself. On the other hand, anyone who has no knowledge about weather/weather model can post a misinformed weather post scaring people about something that isn't going to happen. To try to counter this, informed meteorologists post about the said problem to calm people down.

    The issue is now the informed meteorologists have crossed a line of oversaturating social media about a system that "might" make landfall 15-20 days out. This is all because a couple of models 300 hours out were posted. They have posted for the last week or so now about Erin having the potential to make landfall even though they didn't have enough data to match. They care more about being the "first" to mention it than following grounded rules about not believing model tracks when there isn't a closed circulation so the errors will be higher. Also focusing on 10+ days out landfall when most models can't reliability track a hurricane 5+ days out without 150+ miles of error further exasperating the issue.

    In conclusion meteorologists need to stop posting 5+ times a day on Erin. If you want to make a post one or two times a day that seems reasonable, but anymore than that is ridiculous. For one, it does seem to track away from the US coastline. Secondly it is still 10+ days away to make landfall anyways.  We need to have better ground rules before we post so haywire about it; otherwise we are no better than the misinformed posters elsewhere.   

Sunday 3/23 weather

 On Sunday impactful weather will happen on two fronts. To the north a snowstorm will impact upper Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The GFS models shows what areas could see in terms of snowfall. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the south severe weather is expected. Scattered damaging winds and hail are the main threat, although a few tornadoes can't be ruled out.  (image from the National Weather Service)

Weather for Sunday 3/23

Sunday the 23rd looks to be a active day on two fronts. To the south severe weather is expected. Hail, and damaging winds are the main threat though a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. (image from the National Weather Service)

To the north a another snowstorm is expected. A broad area of 4 inches expected  in Upper Minnesota and upper Wisconsin. This area will likely be refined as we get closer to the actual event. (image from Icon model from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) 

Severe Weather Update 3/19

 Quick update about the severe weather.  The chances for Tornadoes have increased in Illinois and Indiana. A couple of tornadoes are expected in the slight and enhanced area. The enhanced risk also has a threat of seeing 1 or 2 strong tornadoes. A tornado watch has been issued for the whole enhanced risk and nearby counties. The rest of the severe weather forecast (hail and damaging wind) is the same as yesterday.(images from the National Weather Service)

 

Blizzard for tomorrow in the Upper midwest.

 Nothing much has changed in terms of thinking. This is what the HRRR thinks in terms of snowfall amounts for the area. Purple and pink areas could see amounts of 6-12 inches. With the just pink seeing 8-14 inches. From Kansas to Minnesota, blizzard conditions are expected. While in Wisconsin it looks to be under the criteria, but windy conditions are expected. (image from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)

To the southeast of the snow tomorrow. Severe weather is possible, with scattered hail or wind threat or isolated tornado or two possible in the slight risk area. With a isolated wind or hail possible in the marginal area. (image from the National Weather Service)

Honorable Mention

There is an area of low pressure in the Atlantic that has 10% chance to become a tropical depression/storm. It poses no threat to land. While I don't see it forming, it is a good reminder that the hurricane season in the Atlantic starts June 1. 

Snowstorm for Wednesday

 For Wednesday a low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions to Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and lower Minnesota. The path of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions has moved slightly north as compared to yesterday. The Icon model looks like it has a decent idea of what could happen on Wednesday (image below, from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ ). The purple and pink swath could see 5-8 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions likely. A maximum of snowfall looks be in the pink area in Iowa and lower Minnesota with 6-10 inches of snowfall with blizzard conditions (locally higher amounts possible). It should be noted the path of the heaviest snowfall could still adjust north or south. If you live in the pink or purple swath or nearby it, please have a way to get updates on when or what you are expecting, as you won't want to be on the road during the worse conditions.